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#rainfall

3 posts3 participants0 posts today
Public
ES Michelson

Friends,
Re; #LongIsland fires in #Westhampton. It’s worth noting that this time last year Long Island was way above the average for #rain fall. March 2024 had the highest rainfall every recorded at KISP (Islip Airport) with 9.54 in inches per my earlier #ClimateDiary post. This year, as the comparison graph shows, we are at record low #rainfall so far.  

Update as of this morning, 100% knocked down (no visible flame) and 22% contained with perimeter firebreak.
#WesthamptonPinesFire

2024 and 2025 year to date precipitation graphs at Westhampton Airport are side by side. 2024 accumulated 12.5 inches of rain to March 9 and 2025 sits at only 3 inches year to date.
Public
Starbeamrainbowlabs

While I try to find time to write a PhD update blog post, here's a Cool Graph I plotted recently for my rainfall radar model.

One of the things I have been asked to do in my PhD corrections is to assess the model's stability. To this end, I trained a series of models at different learning rates, and this is the result.

Now I just need to figure out why the output prediction looks like it has a case of chickenpox.....

A Cool Graph showing validation accuracy over training for my rainfall radar model. Unsurprisingly, a lower learning rate (lr=0.00001) results in higher and more stable validation accuracy than a higher learning rate (lr=0.01). Particularly higher learning rates are very variable in accuracy; stretching from 0.3 - 0.8. Lower learning rates are ~0.8 - ~0.95.
#PhD#PhDThesis#Corrections
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💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Study Warns Of Glacial Outburst [GLOF] Risks From Hydropower Projects In The Himalayas, Caution Comes After Nod To Resume Testa III [Hydroelectric Project, India]
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timesofindia.indiatimes.com/in <-- shared media article
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doi.org/10.1126/science.ads265 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #GLOF #Sikkim #Himalayas #India #climatechange #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #hydroelectric #HEP #energy #TestaIII #testa #dam #failure #engineeringgeology #engineering #construction #multihazard #melting #glacier #glacial #climatechange #weather #lowpressuresystem #planning #glaciallakes #lakes #water #hydrology #naturaldisaster #Lhonak #downstream #elevation #steepness #slope #geometry #infrastructure #publicsafety #lateral #moraine #sedimentation #cost #economics #remotesensing #model #modeling #imagery #outburstflood #overtopping #hydropower #vulnerable #humanimpact #policy #riskmanagement #warning #rainfall #precipitation

maps and charts - summary of damage assessment
maps and photos - Overview of the 3-4 October 2023 GLOF cascade from South Lhonak Lake, India
photos - Field evidence of sediment aggradation
photo - Teesta III hydroelectric dam soon after failure
Public
Scientific Frontline

Even though ‘glacial’ is commonly used to describe extremely slow, steady movement, a new study has found that #glaciers speed up and slow down on a daily – even hourly – basis in response to changes in air temperature, #rainfall and the #tides
#Environmental #EarthScience #sflorg
sflorg.com/2025/02/en02032501.

www.sflorg.comTemperature, rainfall and tides speed glacier flow on a daily basisDetailed study of a Greenland glacier’s flow rate reveals the impact of environmental conditions.
Public
O=C=O

Fire chiefs warn UK is not prepared for climate crisis impacts

The #UK is not prepared for the impact of #ClimateBreakdown, fire chiefs have said, as they called on the government to take urgent action to protect communities.
The National Fire Chiefs Council (#NFCC) said the ability of fire services to tackle #weather-related emergencies was at risk, despite them often being the primary frontline response to major weather events including #flooding, #fires caused by #heatwaves, and #storm-related emergencies, all of which are becoming more common.
The #MetOffice predicts that winters by 2070 will be as much as 4.5C #warmer and 30% #wetter than they were in 1990, while summers may be up to 6C warmer and 60% #drier. The south of England is projected to face temperatures reaching 40C (104F) and #rainfall is expected to increase by a quarter.

theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/f

The Guardian · Fire chiefs warn UK is not prepared for climate crisis impactsBy Robyn Vinter
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💧🌏 Greg Cocks

NOAA/USGS Water Map – National Water Model
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water.noaa.gov/map <-- shared web map
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water.noaa.gov/about/nwm <-- shared NWM ‘About’ page
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[ the post’s author did the spatial analysis to get the first round of elevation values of the majority of the 10s of millions offshore points, etc - alturl.com/3nrbm ]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #NationalWaterModel #NOAA #NWM #FIM #water #hydrology #framework #streamflow #realtime #observed #watercycle #rainfall #precipitation #snowmelt #overlandflow #flood #flooding #floodinnundationmodel #FIM #infiltration #bigdata #supercomputer #risk #hazard #mitigation #warning #warningsystems #threat #guidance #NationalWeatherService #forecast #forecasting #meteorology #river
@NOAA @USGS @nws

schematic - NWM v3.0 New Total Water Level Forecasting Capability
screen shot - NWM https://water.noaa.gov/map - CONUS
photo - flooding in a residential neighbourhood
map - NWM v3.0 Total Water Level Domain Coverage
Public
Headlines Africa

East Africa: Most Parts of Greater Horn Africa Expected to Receive Below-Normal Rainfall, ICPAC Predicts: [ENA] Addis Ababa, -- The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released its seasonal climate forecast for March to May (MAM) 2025, indicating that most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. newsfeed.facilit8.network/THVj #EastAfrica #ClimateChange #WeatherForecast #Rainfall #GreaterHornOfAfrica

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💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Atop The Oregon Cascades, [Research] Team Finds A Huge Buried Aquifer
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eurekalert.org/news-releases/1 <-- shared technical article
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doi.org/10.1073/pnas.241515512 <-- shared paper
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usgs.gov/centers/oregon-water- <-- shared USGS technical article, 2011, ‘McKenzie River Source Water Study’
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youtu.be/6R8e5HwGMwU?si=sniW4b <-- shared media video overview
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #water #hydrology #Oregon #Cascades #CascadeMountains #PNW #PacificNorthwest #volcanic #rocks #aquifer #waterresources #watermanagement #climatechange #snowpack #drought #spatialanalysis #CriticalZone #geohazards #geology #engineeringgeology #landscapes #weathering #bedrock #holocene #groundwater #structuralgeology #orogeny #remotesensing #geophysics #sampling #drilling #porosity #permability #tomography #lava #spring #seep #breccia #discharge #streams #runoff #precipitation #climate #rainfall #recharge

photo - Scientists examine a large-volume spring in young volcanic rocks of the McKenzie River watershed on the west side of the Cascade topographic crest that was monitored as part of this study. Credit: Benjamin Nash
map, photo and charts - (A) Electrical resistivity tomography of Olallie North Spring, which emerges along a flow contact of _25 ka Scott Mountain lava flows. Lateral variations correspond to spring discharge points along the lava flow basal breccia such as depicted in (B) (photo: Benjamin Nash). (C) Mean of total yearly range in discharge _Q divided by mean annual flow Qavg versus average upstream age for springs and streams. The horizontal line defines “spring-” versus “runoff-” dominated. (D) SD of yearly average summer discharge (June–September), normalized by Qavg, with CZ state shift labeled.
maps and chart - (A) Distribution of geothermal drill holes. Thin black circles’ radii scale with total logged length, and colors indicate the fraction of length for which dT=dz < 20_C/km (implying downward flux of meteoric water). Red circles are the fraction with inverted gradients (dT=dz < 0_C/km). The purple contour indicates bedrock ages <2 Ma, while stars mark Holocene age phreatomagmatic eruption vents. (B) Two example temperature-depth logs from deep wells in old and young bedrock. (C) Porosity (blue) and resistivity (orange) in the Santiam Pass drill hole SP 77-24. Dashed lines indicate low porosity at high measured resistivity. (D) Chemical weathering tracked by oxidation state of iron in the Santiam Pass drill hole. The green box indicates range of Quaternary High Cascades lavas (SI Appendix), indicating that much of the SP 77-24 hole has been oxidized.
maps and cross section - Oregon Cascades study site. (A) Topography, rivers (from USGS blue lines), stream gauges, lakes, and faults. Olallie North Spring (ONS) and HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) are labeled. (B) Surface bedrock ages (18), geothermal drill holes, and Quaternary volcanic vents (19). Labeled vents exhibited Holocene phreatomagmatic activity: Sand Mountain volcanic field (SMF), Blue Lake Crater (BLC), Twin Craters (TC). Gray areas are mapped as “Sedimentary deposits and rocks” in ref. 18. (C) Cross-section of swath topography and surface bedrock ages (N-S average of _4 km from Santiam Pass, pink box in panel A), with subsurface structures based on published geologic maps (SI Appendix). The proposed Critical Zone (CZ) state shift and physiographic “Western” and “High” Cascade provinces are labeled. (D) Temperature gradient versus depth in drill holes from panel (C). Near-isothermal or inverted temperature gradients define the “rain curtain.”
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