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@interfluidity This is interesting. https://www.bis.org/publ/work722.pdf
Suggests that much 70/80s inflation might have been due to huge growing cohort of youth. (They spend, or their parents do for them, but don't produce yet.) Also lots more retirees. By 85 much of the youth bulge has come to working age.
@interfluidity Meanwhile immigration in 1970 was at a seven-decade low. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/immigrant-population-over-time
@interfluidity Here's non-working-age population, % of total population. We're at 38%, a level we haven't seen since the 70s. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=10Hq1
@SteveRoth Interesting! But is that inflationary or deflationary? The most straightforward intuition is that a rising dependency ratio is inflationary: everyone consumes, but fewer produce, prices must rise until only the fewer goods and services can be purchased. But empirically, population aging in eg Japan and Germany has been more disinflationary than inflationary, the reduced activity of older people diminishing demand more than the loss of supply from their retirements.
@interfluidity This doesn't seem to help me much with this tenuous theorizing, but darned interesting how diff they are.
@SteveRoth I'm surprised Germany is lower on the graph than US! I don't know whether there's an easy way in FRED, but I think it'll be important to disaggregate non-working-age because child from non-working-age because retired. At a household level, households with kids are unusually high demanders, where households of retirees unusually low. Part of that is just a matter of household size differences, but I think only part. Even on a per-cap basis, I suspect households with kids demand more.
@interfluidity Just been poking at that. Support for your theory: in ’66, 42% of the population was 19 or younger! By 1980 it was 34% and declining fast. 1990, 30%.
@interfluidity Plus of those coming-of-agers, women entering the workforce at unprecedented and increasing percentages.
@interfluidity Germany's "olds and youngs" as a % population is only a couple of PercPts diff from US, and trend is the same. Japan's measures and trends are both wildly diff. Weird.