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Very interesting article from the NYTimes about scientists on the front lines of monitoring the stratosphere to detect if someone starts geoengineering.
Many of these people are former colleagues from when I worked on the stratosphere. About 10 years ago, I thought that the stratosphere was done — all of the interesting questions had been answered.
But nature has conspired to prove me wrong.
The last few years have proven me wrong. Probably the most amazing was the eruption of Hunga Tonga, but there were also fires dumping combustion products deep into the stratosphere, and some extreme ozone hole events.
This article also identifies one of the most important stratospheric issues. Over the last few years, my estimate of the odds that we'll engage in solar radiation management has gone from "no way" to "yeah, I can really see this happening".
Worryingly, some rogue actor might start geoengineering without any kind of global agreement. See, e.g., the book Termination Shock for a surprisingly plausible scenario. Or the bozos at Make Sunsets.
That would be a supremely dangerous thing to do.
I'm glad to see the people at NOAA are laying the groundwork to detect if someone starts solar radiation management at sufficient scale to affect the climate.
@andrewdessler
Ja. And as one of the researchers says in the article, we don't know if other countries also started monitoring SO2 and are just not talking about it.
I'm confused tho. On what incoming data is CAMS' SO2 forecast based on? see here, scroll down to sulphur dioxide https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/