But the ball is now in the West's (and particularly #Portugal's) court to address #GuineaBissau's concerns and agency. Embaló visited Kyiv in October 2022. In a similar way to his current praise of all the support received from the USSR, he then underlined quite close historical relations. He expressed his shock by Russian aggression and its visible consequences. He also called #Ukraine a "strategic partner".

This comes on the heels of #Russia writing off nearly $27 million, equivalent of 80% of #GuineaBissau's debt. The #CPLP and #Portugal are currently worried about Russia's diplomatic offensive in Portuguese-speaking African countries (#PALOP). I have stated recently for Expresso that the country was one of Russia's most obvious next target within PALOP.

#Ukraine

Travels on the continent, meetings with African heads of state, opening of new embassies will not be enough to sway #PALOP/African countries one way or another. Of primary importance is to address African concerns and adapt to African agency. A fact that #Portugal has failed to learn so far, if we are to believe its recent reaction to the #Russia-#SãoTomé deal.

Such is the case of #EquatorialGuinea (that signed an agreement with #Belarus last December) or #SãoTomé (which recently signed a defence agreement with #Russia). Those agreements should not be taken as a sign that these nations are allying and aligning with Russia.

While Russian influence in #Angola is indeed waning - although not as a direct consequence of the war - and Ukrainian efforts have been positively received in several countries, the war has rather been an incentive for several #PALOP countries to try their hand at multivectorial diplomacy.

None however have voted in favour of the removal of #Russia from the #UN Human Rights Council. (#CapeVerde has also been the first African country to confirm its participation to #Ukraine's peace summit, to be held shortly)

At the same time, upholding of the #UN charter is of paramount concern for #Africa. All of those countries have condemned the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity - albeit vocalizing this condemnation more or less openly. Only #CapeVerde and #SãoToméandPríncipe have consistently supported #Ukraine at the UN General Assembly.

#Angola and #CapeVerde are openly getting closer to the West as a result of inner policy concerns, but #Russia has friendly ties with most countries of the region, ties those countries do not rush to strain. Those ties have been helped by recent Russian efforts at strengthening its influence on the continent and getting rid of Western competitors.

#Ukraine #CPLP #PALOP

#Ukraine and #Russia are both vying for influence - including in the information space - and are getting different results depending on histories, memories, strategic imperatives in different #PALOP countries.

As the title states, #Angola stands to benefit the most, as #EU countries are looking for alternate energy suppliers. However, the most immediate consequence has been the challenge to food security presented by the blockade of the #BlackSea. This has been a major tool for Ukrainian policy through the "Grain from #Ukraine" initiative. #Mozambique is one of the main recipients.