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#ecmwf

2 posts2 participants0 posts today
Denis Gilbert

It is always interesting to see how successive El Niño events and La Niña events modulate the 12-month average global warming time series. The 1997-1998, 2015-2016, 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 El Niño events are readily detectable as bumps in this graphic from @CopernicusECMWF.

And the slight temporary cooling of the past months is due to a brief La Niña event that took place a few months ago.

climate.copernicus.eu/surface-

#GlobalWarming#ClimateChange#ENSO
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Joris Meys

Brace for impact. The #ECMWF #weather #model promises scorching temperatures over #Europe the coming week. Anomalies of up to 15-20 C higher than normal are expected.

This weather is brought to you by climate change (for those who claim it's been hot before: weather is what happens, climate is the probability it happens. And this has become significantly more probable because greenhouse gases and physics.)

#wx#Climate
Continued thread
anlomedad

Global Mean Temperature GMT is just a way of keeping track of change, not a metric for actually useful information.
Our tech civilisation can break at GMT 1.5°C, and the reasons for impending collapse of complex fragile supply chains that our order depends on so fundamentally, won't be detected pondering GMT line charts.

Pondering the When & Where of weather extremes as modelled in IFS and ICON, will reveal impending civilisation collapse – if combined with knowledge of:
global supply chains, indispensable workforce, and locally applicable national and international politics wrt social and climate safety nets.

That's also why I find this comparison of model resolutions by Brunner et al so very, very useful. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.

I discovered similar while trying to find the <physically possible> max rain events in Europe 2020-2024. I crawled through all 50 ECMWF weather forecast members with their 360 hour steps.
But the all-time maxima didn't even come close to the 2020-2024 maxima in NOAA's weather station collection, let alone showing higher rain amounts than what hit the ground.

The TIGGE archive can be used for data download: apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/t

One problem was my 1x1°grid, interpolated during the data download from the original 0.5x0.5° grid = 57 km2.
(Interpolation means averaging neighbour grid cells.)

0.5x0.5° is too coarse, too. The paper uses models with a 9 km2 and 13 km2 grid!

Nah... Won't do it again on a 0.5x0.5° grid.
I might check whether TIGGE's other archived forecast models have a higher resolution than #ECMWF . And if they do, I'll test the member forecasts for Valencia, September 2024.
Or maybe also test against another event that wasn't due to a recurring phenomenon like the one in Spain. The Belgium and Germany flooding on July 14, 2021 for example.

IIRC, the serial TIGGE download & analysis took 5 weeks on 2 laptops, during which my main computer wasn't capable of much else.
I'd also need more SSD drives for higher resolution😵‍💫

Or, since I really simply want to map the maximum <physically possible> extreme, I could serial-process the highest resolution in smaller data chunks! 💡

I am still keen because I really think such a map of extremes, based on the physically possible would be very valuable information.

One example:
Potsdam's September 4th 2024 was the first September 4th with higher daily max temperature than in 1895. Meaning, the 1895 extreme was physically possible already in a non-angry weather.
That "perfect storm" only occurred once in 130 years before it happened again – and it wasn't a very threatening temperature (°C in September isn't threatening on Potsdam's latitude due to the sun's seasonal position in the sky).

But September 4, 2024 was not a "perfect Sept 4th storm".
What would the extreme have been like in "perfect conditions" – ie, with Exxon's CO2 applied?

Ah. Now that is a question I can find an answer to much quicker than the Tigge project.

I can just pull the all-time maximum from weather stations. Then do its weekly decadal average and subtract this from the newest weekly decadal average under Exxon's CO2 forcing.
Then add the difference to the all-time maximum, et voilà: the maximum physically possible in that location.

Nice. Will do!

iopscience.iop.orgRadware Bot Manager Captcha
O=C=O

German Satellite Achieves First Simultaneous CO2 and NO2 Measurements from Power Plant Emissions

The newly developed approach allows scientists to directly measure #CO2 and #NO2 over individual power plants, providing critical data for understanding atmospheric processes and industrial #emissions. The findings, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, demonstrate that EnMAP can effectively track emissions over distances of several tens of kilometers, a feat previously considered unfeasible for a satellite not explicitly designed for atmospheric measurements.

Power plants release CO2 and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as part of their regular operations, both of which significantly contribute to air pollution and climate change. CO2, a primary #GreenhouseGas, and NOx, a precursor to ground-level #ozone, have traditionally been challenging to monitor at high spatial resolutions from space.

Most satellite instruments lack the fine-scale detail required to distinguish individual emission sources against the background atmospheric concentrations. #EnMAP, however, overcomes these challenges with its unique capability to capture detailed 30 x 30 meter resolution imagery.

"Using the EnMAP data, we were able to determine the distribution of CO2 and NO2 in emission plumes from individual PowerPlants - for example, from facilities in #SaudiArabia and the South African #Highveld region, one of the world's largest emission hotspots," said Christian Borger, the study's first author and former postdoctoral researcher in the Satellite Remote Sensing Group at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry. Borger now conducts research at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (#ECMWF) in #Bonn.

spacedaily.com/m/reports/Germa

#ClimateScience
#ClimateCrisis
#RemoteSensing

Space DailyGerman Satellite Achieves First Simultaneous CO2 and NO2 Measurements from Power Plant EmissionsBerlin, Germany (SPX) May 12, 2025 - A research team from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and Heidelberg University has achieved a significant breakthrough, using the German environmental satellite EnMAP (Environmental
Jacek Staszczuk

O w mordę. Przejrzałem prognozy. Głównie modele #ECMWF ale i inne, i tak wiem, powyżej 7 dni sprawdzalność spada na fifty-fifty, ale jak na razie to nie będzie piękny maj. Do 17-go u mnie nie będzie cieplej niż 14 stopni 🫣 Jasny gwint, to sporo poniżej normy wieloletniej. Coś cieplejszego zapowiada się dopiero w trzeciej dekadzie miesiąca. Jak znam życie to walnie wówczas upałem z 15 na 30 i będziemy chodzić jak pijane pingwiny 😆 #prognoza #pogoda #maj

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joene 🏴🍉

Dr Gilbz: *Europe’s climate is heating faster than any other*

"2024 was the world’s hottest year on record, and Europe is the continent warming the fastest. Extreme events ravaged Europe last year, including floods, wildfires and storms that claimed hundreds of lives and impacted many thousands more.

To find out more, I spoke to Julien Nicolas, a co-author of the European State of the Climate Report, a huge undertaking that was put together by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organisation."

youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&
(🛡️ id.420129.xyz/watch?v=B5FmWfIy)

YouTubeEurope’s climate is heating faster than any otherBy Dr Gilbz
#ClimateCrisis#ClimateChange#ESOTC2024
Continued thread
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Jörg Honegger :swisssocial: 🇺🇦

#Climatecrisis #Climate #Weather #Anomalies #SurfaceAirTemperature #Temperature #Precipitation #ERA5 #C3S

Details at #Copernicus #ECMWF: climate.copernicus.eu/copernic

linkedin.com/posts/reto-knutti

2/2

climate.copernicus.euCopernicus: Warmest March in Europe and lowest Arctic winter sea ice | CopernicusThe Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover and hydrological variables.
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jpoesen | 🇪🇺 | 🏳️‍🌈

#ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

I've worked with them for a number of years and visited their impressive Ops centre in Reading multiple times.

It's absolutely great news that they will be releasing all of their real-time data under a CreativeCommons #OpenData license later this year.

ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centr

ECMWFECMWF to achieve fully open data status in 2025ECMWF is bringing forward the full transition to open data by an entire year, to 1 October 2025, marking a significant milestone in its commitment to making weather data more accessible and impactful.
Denis Gilbert

@ECMWF's Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) is now operational, issuing forecasts from a single model run.

ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centr

Using the 2025-03-01 06:00 UTC AIFS Single forecast, here is the 2025-03-01 18:00 UTC (T+12h) forecast mean sea level pressure and 6-hour accumulated #precipitation (water equivalent) over Europe and North America.

#ecmwf#weather#wx
_mu

In times of climate radically changing, the #ECMWF european midrange weather forcast replaces physics based models with models based on automated statistics aka past data aka #ai... I feel like reading a dystopic novel, that lacks a bit in suspense, because while reading, you always think "aaah i see where the author is going with this".

Only ther's no author.

Or am i missing a point?

What are the driving forces that make us go this way?

Heres the original statement: ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centr

ECMWFECMWF’s AI forecasts become operationalECMWF has taken the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) into operations today, 25 February 2025, to run side by side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to advance numerical weather prediction.
#naturalstupidity
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