RealClimate: What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?
Timing of the critical #AMOC #transition is still highly uncertain, but increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 % during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades.
The conservative #IPCC estimate, based on climate models which are #too #stable and don’t get the full #freshwater #forcing, is in my view outdated now.
I side with the recent Climate Tipping Points report by the #OECD, which advised:
Yet, the current scientific evidence unequivocally supports unprecedented, urgent and ambitious climate action to tackle the risks of climate system tipping points.
If you'd like to know more about this topic, you can either watch my short talk from the Exeter Tipping Points conference last autumn (where also Peter Ditlevsen first presented the study which was just published), or the longer video of my EPA Climate Lecture in Dublin Mansion House last April
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/