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RealClimate: What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Timing of the critical #AMOC #transition is still highly uncertain, but increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 % during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades.

The conservative #IPCC estimate, based on climate models which are #too #stable and don’t get the full #freshwater #forcing, is in my view outdated now.

I side with the recent Climate Tipping Points report by the #OECD, which advised:

Yet, the current scientific evidence unequivocally supports unprecedented, urgent and ambitious climate action to tackle the risks of climate system tipping points.

If you'd like to know more about this topic, you can either watch my short talk from the Exeter Tipping Points conference last autumn (where also Peter Ditlevsen first presented the study which was just published), or the longer video of my EPA Climate Lecture in Dublin Mansion House last April
realclimate.org/index.php/arch

RealClimate | Climate science from climate scientists... · RealClimate: What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?RealClimate: For various reasons I'm motivated to provide an update on my current thinking regarding the slowdown and tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). I attended a two-day AMOC session at the IUGG Conference the week before last, there's been interesting new papers, and in the light of that I have been changing

Astronomical Forcings Shaped Timing of Glacial Cycles during Early Pleistocene, Study Says
Glacial cycles during the Early Pleistocene epoch are characterized by a dominant 41,000-year periodicity and amplitudes smaller than those of glacial cycles with 100,000-year periodicity during the Late Pleistocene. However, it is unclear how the 41,000-year glacial cycles during the Early Pleistocene respond to Earth’s astronomical forcings.
sci.news/othersciences/climato #astronomical #forcing #glacial #pleistocene